The war for public opinion over the Middle East is heating up between Moscow and Ankara. Since Turkey shot down a Russian warplane on its border with Syria in late November, the recriminations have been flying. Each of these powers is accusing the other of playing Daesh’s game, one by supporting the moderate opposition, the other by propping up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Both continue to ratchet up tensions, magnifying the risk of a direct conflict, writes World Review expert Charles Millon.
Russia has accused Turkey of supporting Daesh, also known as Islamic State, through clandestine purchases of oil from the group. It has even gone so far as to claim that the son of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is involved. On the other hand, Turkey is denouncing what it calls the “ethnic cleansing” that it claims Russia is committing through its bombing campaign in the northern areas of Syria, where a significant Sunni Turkmen population is located.
Though increasingly at odds with each other, Turkey and Russia are peas in a pod – perhaps fueling their mutual hatred. Apart from being the surviving rumps of former empires, they both have elected strongmen as leaders. President Erdogan has been in power for 12 years and Russian President Vladimir Putin for 15; both have alternated serving as prime minister and president. These are two nations with an appetite for power and a desire to reclaim a leading role in international affairs – and they are jousting with each other.
Both countries live in a kind of permanent state of war, threatened internally by ethnic minorities or religious dissidents, such as the Kurds in Turkey or the Central Asian Muslims in Russia. They both suffer from a sizable discrepancy between their external ambitions and their domestic economies, which are fragile and sometimes shaky.
That both countries have become embroiled in the Middle Eastern conflict stretching from Syria to Iran bodes ill – particularly when they end up nose to nose, with no buffer between them. As a NATO member, Turkey has followed the West’s official line for a long time and has enjoyed special protection by the United States. Russia, of course, sees the U.S. and NATO as threats.
The countries stand in contrast to Europe, both close to and distant from it, but very similar to each other. Turkey has NATO membership in its favor, but Russia has the advantage of being a Christian nation. Now they are competing on two fronts – in relation to the West and in relation to the Middle East – making their rivalry even more dangerous.
The simultaneous interventions by Turkey and Russia risk inflaming the regional conflict, rather than helping to find a solution. Turkey may be justified in reacting to a war raging on its borders, but it is still playing a devious game. In Syria, it has chosen to side with the ostensibly “moderate” anti-Assad camp, whose real ideological leanings are unclear. Murky links between Turkey and Daesh remain.
Turkey is also taking advantage of the situation to bomb the Kurds – both in Syria and within its own borders. However, it is also giving military support to the Kurds in Iraq, against the wishes of Baghdad. This strategy reduces the effectiveness of the Kurds’ efforts against Daesh today, and risks triggering an intra-Kurdish war tomorrow.
Russia is being duplicitous as well when it accuses Turkey of buying oil from Daesh. While Russian involvement in Syria is based on international law – Mr. Assad called on Moscow for help – there is plenty of room for criticism. Russia is hitting out indiscriminately against all forms of opposition to the Assad regime, including Islamic radicals in Daesh and the al-Nusra Front, but also other groups, be they ethnic, religious or democratic.
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Publication Date:
Wed, 2016-01-06 06:00
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