Yemen becomes risky playground for regional powers

ISLAMIC militants versus Islamic militants? The inventiveness of extremists when it comes to the wars they are waging in the Middle East and Africa seems inexhaustible, writes World Review expert Charles Millon. We may have thought that Islamic State was the last threshold of barbarism and the breakdown of traditional state structures. Now, however, even as the group metastasises in Libya, the Sinai Peninsula and Nigeria, it faces competition from such unpleasant movements as Somalia-based al-Shabaab or, even more worrying, the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The rise of the Houthis, a militia that follows the Zaidi branch of Shia Islam, began in earnest last autumn. By January 22, 2015 they had forced the departure of Yemeni President Abdurabuh Mansur Hadi. However, it was not until March 26 that Yemen’s larger neighbour, Saudi Arabia, led a coalition that conducted a number of air strikes on the Houthis, American-style, without sending in troops on the ground. Riyadh’s intrusion was welcomed by the international community. The Saudi Arabian public proclaimed their new minister of defence, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the king’s son, a hero. The reality is more complicated. There is another power broker in the region: Iran. When Tehran criticised the Saudi intervention in Yemen, it was immediately accused of secretly aiding the rebels. That now appears to be the case. So is it a matter of right on one side of the Persian Gulf and wrong on the other? It is important to note that Saudi Arabia and its allies did not have any mandate from the international community to intervene in Yemen. Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, can therefore make a good case for denouncing ‘Saudi aggression,’ as he did in April, calling the airstrikes ‘genocide’ against an ‘innocent people.’ Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, for his part, claimed that Saudi Arabia was repeating the same mistakes made in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria by fanning the flames between Shias and Sunnis. Nevertheless, the local situation is actually evolving favourably on another front: the signing in April of the Lausanne agreement on uranium enrichment between Iran and the group of 5+1 nations. The deal does not resolve all of the outstanding concerns and is only a first step towards a more comprehensive accord. Still, given the complexity of the matter, it is a good sign. Is Iran still the major ‘troublemaker’ that it is commonly depicted to be? You can never be sure of how the mullahs will exercise their power. In the past, they have shown themselves to be masters of dissimulation. However, Iran’s return as a player in world politics is necessary, if only to counterbalance the weight – which has become too heavy – of Saudi Arabia and its ally-rivals in the Gulf emirates and Egypt. Yemen is a very revealing case. It is the perfect chessboard for the Muslim version of the Thirty Years’ War that is now taking place, in which each regional power moves its pawns into supposedly weaker neighbours. Except for neutral Oman, the world’s only Muslim country where neither Sunni nor Shia Islam dominates, all of the other countries in the region have enlisted in the fight between Shias and Sunnis. For a more in-depth look at this subject with scenarios looking to future outcomes, go to our sister site: Geopolitical Information Service. Sign in for 3 Free Reports or Subscribe.

RB metadata

ID: 

1444928824074907100