EUROPE is watching with bewilderment the inflow of refugees and immigrants through its borders, and the human tragedies that inevitably accompany such treks. Just as bewildering is why Europe has been so unprepared. This migration was predictable, writes Prince Michael von Liechtenstein.
This mass south-to-north migration is epochal, more important than Europe’s debt crisis or the smouldering conflict in Ukraine. It has powerful underlying causes and the dangers and opportunities it brings are many.
Europe has a falling birth rate and an ageing population. Even in a protracted economic crisis, it is an island of prosperity and stability compared with much of the rest of the world. Conditions in Europe’s closest neighbours – Africa and the Middle East – are just the reverse. These countries are overpopulated and have young populations. Their economic growth is too slow or non-existent and many are ravaged by conflicts and civil wars.
In Northern Africa and the Middle East, large parts of the population are determined to leave their homes and seek a better life in Europe. This is bound to happen and nothing can stop it.
The Syrian exodus is already peaking, while migration from the rest of Africa is a long-term trend. In a near future, the bulk of the human river can be expected to flow to Europe from the Saharan and sub-Saharan countries. The Sahel is hugely overpopulated, its economic and political circumstances are catastrophic and the natural living conditions marginal. The migrants from this region are overwhelmingly young men seeking jobs and income, not entire families.
Refugees from the Middle East and Afghanistan are for the most part fleeing war, repression and killing. Africans mostly emigrate for economic reasons, although there are plenty of wars and repression, too. It should also be remembered that in an environment as harsh as the Sahel, economic emigration can be a question of physical survival.
Smart policies by the EU, especially working directly with the African states, may help limit this inflow and perhaps even stop it in the long run. Over the next decade, however, Europe must be prepared to absorb millions. The sheer size of these movements makes them impossible to stop.
There is no escaping the fact that Europe must be ready to cope with about 1 million immigrants from the South each year. This equals only 0.2 per cent of the EU’s population. And if the inflow doubles to 2 million, that would still represent a mere 0.4 per cent of that population.
Europe needs immigrants to compensate for its negative birth rate. Not only will highly qualified immigrants help; there are unskilled jobs to fill as well.
With its falling birth rate, Europe will soon not have enough young people to sustain its prosperity and provide services to an ageing population. The masses needed to plug this demographic gap are coming from the south and beating on the EU’s door.
The best choice by far would be to integrate the newcomers and put them to work as quickly as possible. This requires wholesale changes in Europe’s restrictive labour codes. It also means crash programmes in remedial education, languages and occupational skills must be organised so immigrants can take the jobs that become available.
Cultural and religious concerns related to mass immigration, evident in many European countries, are legitimate and must be addressed in a forthright way. Integration of the newcomers must be contingent on their respect for European culture and its roots in the Christian tradition. No concessions ought to be made in this area.
(A version of this article was published in Neue Züricher Zeitung on September 11, 2015).
This is the first part of Geopolitical Information Service’s three-part series on the migration drama. More reports October 12 and 13.
For a more in-depth look at this subject with scenarios looking to future outcomes, go to our sister site: Geopolitical Information Service. Sign in for 3 Free Reports or Subscribe.
Publication Date:
Fri, 2015-10-09 05:00
Attached Files:
