AFGHANISTAN’S President Ashraf Ghani secured two important outcomes on a recent visit to Washington, writes World Review expert Lisa Curtis.
First, US President Barack Obama committed to a long-term partnership with Afghanistan, and second, he agreed to slow the withdrawal of US troops, maintaining a presence there until at least the end of 2015.
The success of strategic talks with senior US officials, including Secretary of State John Kerry, marks the beginning of a new era in relations between the two countries.
There are around 13,200 US and Nato forces currently stationed in Afghanistan, training and advising Afghan forces, though Nato formally ended combat operations in December 2014.
President Obama had pledged to cut US forces in Afghanistan to 5,500 by the end of 2015 before a total withdrawal by the end of 2016.
The new timeline calls for maintaining 9,800 US troops in Afghanistan until at least the end of 2015, but the White House says it remains committed to pulling out its forces completely by the end of 2016.
Since taking the lead in security operations, the Afghans have suffered record casualties but have not lost any territory to the Taliban.
Military training, battlefield advice and air support are still required from the international coalition. Air support is particularly critical since the Taliban lacks such capabilities. The US has confirmed it would seek funding to support Afghan forces until at least 2017.
During his visit in March 2015, President Ghani addressed a joint sitting of the US Congress. He spoke of Afghanistan’s appreciation for American sacrifices, while making it clear that his government’s ultimate goal is to be self-reliant.
President Ghani has also been reaching out to Pakistan. He has prioritised better relations with Islamabad and has handed over captured Pakistani Taliban leaders allegedly involved in the December 2014 attack on a school in Peshawar in which more than 150 died.
He has agreed to send Afghan cadets for training in Pakistan and turned down offers of Indian military equipment so as to ease Pakistani fears of an Indo-Afghan alliance.
Islamabad has not yet reciprocated. Unless the Pakistani government matches his gestures with similar moves - handing over Afghan Taliban leaders to Kabul or pushing the Taliban to the negotiating table - Mr Ghani will lose support for his attempts at rapprochement and the window for improving ties will close.
The security landscape has been complicated by the efforts of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) to establish influence in Afghanistan. ISIS claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing outside a bank in Jalalabad on April 18, 2015, which killed 35 people.
There have been sporadic reports of clashes between ISIS militants and the Taliban in eastern and southern Afghanistan and one former Taliban leader, Mullah Abdul Rauf, who had pledged allegiance to ISIS, was killed in a drone strike two months ago.
It will be difficult, however, for ISIS to make significant inroads into Afghanistan. The Afghan Taliban and ISIS are direct competitors, vying for financial resources, recruits and ideological influence, and the Taliban has a long-standing presence in Afghanistan.
As well as shoring up its security position, the Afghan government is seeking to advance its economic future through regional integration. President Ghani has put forward a development strategy based on connectivity through trade, transit and investments, hoping to make Afghanistan a key transit country for Central and South Asia.
China is also poised to play a larger economic role in the region. Beijing recently pledged US$46 billion in investments in road, rail and energy projects in Pakistan.
In Afghanistan, China has promised to invest US$3 billion to develop the Aynak copper mine near Kabul and the China National Petroleum Company has secured rights to develop oil fields in northern Afghanistan.
According to a 2010 US Defence Department survey, Afghanistan may have untapped mineral resources worth more than US$1 trillion. It is still highly dependent, however, on foreign aid, accounting for more than 95 per cent of its GDP.
Developing greater economic links with its neighbours would enhance private sector investment in Afghanistan's infrastructure and generate customs receipts, allowing Afghanistan to be less reliant on aid.
If the Afghan government increases access to capital, domestic private investment will follow. This would draw in additional foreign investment, particularly in sectors like telecommunications which has already attracted more than US$1.2 billion.
Economic activity and growth would be further boosted should countries such as China move forward with mining investments in Afghanistan.
For a more in-depth look at this subject with scenarios looking to future outcomes, go to our sister site: Geopolitical Information Service. Sign in for 3 Free Reports or Subscribe.
Publication Date:
Thu, 2015-04-30 08:00
Attached Files:
