Boko Haram takes terror across Nigeria’s borders

‘WE ARE part of the Islamic Caliphate. We have nothing to do with Nigeria.’ Those were the words of Abubakar Shekau, leader of Boko Haram, on August 24, 2014, after taking over the town of Gwoza, with 200,000 inhabitants. The previous month he had lent his support to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the self-proclaimed caliph of the Islamic State (IS), writes World Review expert Charles Millon. The IS organisation seems to have some African imitators, including al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Boko Haram, particularly in their use of media. However, do these terrorist groups, and in particular Boko Haram, have sufficient financial means and territorial holdings to become a menace to rival their role model? The Boko Haram sect has carved out its stronghold from state of Borno, about the size of Switzerland, to the country's northern border. It currently controls around 8,000 sq miles. Women and children abducted by Boko Haram are forced into marriage and religious conversion and suffer physical and psychological abuse, forced labour and rape in captivity, according to a report published by Human Rights Watch in October 2014. The civil war is already said to have claimed 5,000 lives and displaced 1.5 million people. The international community was moved in April 2014 by the abduction of 200 schoolgirls in Chibok. They still have not been freed. The war is expanding and the extremist group has been reinforcing its efforts to destabilise the extreme north of neighbouring Cameroon as well. Cameroon has sent numerous soldiers and special forces to the border with Nigeria to halt the advance of the Islamist sect. Yet the real problem is coming from Nigeria itself – a country divided ethnically and religiously, but especially geographically. The oil-rich and majority Christian south cares little for the fate of the northern regions. Christian President Goodluck Jonathan himself seems more preoccupied with his re-election in 2015 - national and presidential polls are scheduled for February 14. His decision to run again has further strained the situation. Normally, according to an unwritten rule, a Christian president should be succeeded by a Muslim. Observers say that the weak response from government forces to the threat of Boko Haram stems from three causes. First, there is corruption existing at all levels, resulting in poorly paid and under-equipped troops on the ground, despite an enormous and unprecedented budget of US$5 billion allocated to security. One may also conjecture about the Machiavellianism of the president, as the situation could prevent the states in the north from voting. However, we also see insubordination in the army, where officers are corrupt and could succeed in replacing the president with a man close to them. Boko Haram naturally takes advantage of the army's unwillingness to fight and is increasing its power. Worse still, the fall in oil prices adds yet another element of chaos. Bunkering is already estimated at US$25 million a day, in a country which draws 80 per cent of its GDP from oil revenues. The withdrawal of the United States as a business partner is an ill omen. Since Opec’s decision not to reduce production, and since a barrel of oil is selling for only US$50 – it is the consumer countries, not the producers, who will dictate their decisions. Thus, Nigeria is in the hands of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) that purchase its oil. Yet the presence of Boko Haram is not limited to a regional rebellion only affecting Nigeria: it is part of a much broader geopolitical destabilisation movement. The sect is strongly suspected of serving as a conduit for arms entering Libya. These weapons may flow through Chad - the irony is that Chad’s capital N'Djamena, one of the command centres for Operation Barkhane, a French-led initiative to contain terrorism in the Sahara/Sahel region, is just 25 miles from territory controlled by the Islamists. It must be feared that Boko Haram will pursue just three objectives during the next few months: • Expanding its sphere of influence on the northern part of Cameroon that the Cameroonian army is not able to secure • Threatening N'Djamena • Trying to link up with the jihadists in Libya. Should the international community accept the creation – in the middle of Africa, in a region that is already vulnerable – of a new cancer, which will impose sharia law, and also engage in all manner of trafficking? It is time to seize the bull by the horns, before the entire region is engulfed in violence.

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