As the Middle East heats up, conflicts suck global powers in

MIDDLE Eastern disputes have again become flash points for global rivalries – a trend that will accelerate and intensify this year. Shia-Sunni tensions remain central, but they are no longer the sole driver of regional conflict, writes World Review expert Bernard Siman. An evolving face-off between Russia and Europe over the eastern Mediterranean, along with competition for dominance of the great trade and tanker routes from the South China Sea and the Persian Gulf to the Suez Canal, have revived great power involvement in the region. At least superficially, the new geopolitical dynamic in the Middle East resembles the grand geopolitical chess matches that took place during the imperialist “Great Game” of the 19th century and the Cold War in the 20th. The key difference between those earlier periods and 2016 is the Middle Eastern states’ newfound ability to act independently and even project force into nearby states and territories, including Africa. To these players must be added non-state actors such as Islamic State, or Daesh, whose challenge often shapes how regional and global powers respond in key situations. Most importantly, is the role Islamist movements have played in undermining political stability in the region, especially by attacking the foundations of the classic nation-state – secure borders and national sovereignty. Perhaps the best way to make sense of this jumbled landscape of alliances and confrontations is to map the key fault lines and forces that are driving regional tensions. The proxy conflict that has gone on for years between Iran and Saudi Arabia, pitting the two regional powers against each other in Bahrain, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, burst into a direct confrontation in January 2016 when the Saudis executed Ayatollah Nimr al-Nimr - a dissident cleric who had been a thorn in the side of the ruling House of Saud for a decade or more. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei described al-Nimr as a “martyr” following his death, which illustrates the gulf separating the two regional powers. Al-Nimr’s killing may yet prove to be an “Archduke Ferdinand” moment in the Middle East, a trigger event that leads to a general conflagration. Iran’s participation in the Vienna conference had been blocked for years by Saudi objections, until Riyadh was at last persuaded to “test” Tehran’s intentions by giving the Iranians a place at the negotiating table. For the Saudis, those intentions have now been tested and Iran - by once again attacking a foreign diplomatic mission – has failed. Escalation in Syria would bring expanded Russian involvement, perhaps including the deployment of ground forces (possibly Islamic fighters supplied by Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov). The proxy war in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia backs the internationally recognized government and Iran allegedly provides covert support for the Houthi rebels, is also likely to intensify with no end in sight. Yemen's commanding position at the strategic narrows between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean makes the conflict a concern for the global powers, including China. China agreed last year to build its first overseas military base in Djibouti – reportedly at the site of a former United States facility – to help protect its interests at this maritime choke point, through which up to 40 percent of global trade flows. The U.S. recently signed a 20-year renewal on its main Djibouti base, Camp Lemonnier, which it plans to expand. This suggests that a Saudi-Iranian conflict, if not contained quickly and effectively, could trigger a broader military conflict that could suck in other regional and global powers. For a more in-depth look at this subject with scenarios looking to future outcomes, go to our sister site: Geopolitical Information Service. Sign in for 3 Free Reports or Subscribe.

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