Israeli security in 2016: bright spots, dark trends

ON THE CUSP of the new year, looking into 2016 is a daunting task for any Israel analyst trying to gauge what it may bring for the country’s security and foreign relations. The country faces tremendous uncertainty in the year to come, writes World Review expert Professor Dr Amatzia Baram. In the realm of security, there is some good news – in the sense that it is hard to fathom Arab armoured divisions rolling onto the Golan Heights or the West Bank. The Syrian military has been decimated by the revolt in that country, while Jordanian and Egyptian military cooperation with Israel is closer than ever. Unfortunately for Israel, not all is well. The ‘intifada of the knives’ (and cars) shows no sign of abating. Arab social media teem with incitement to kill Jews. This popular technology is responsible for a current paradox: while Israel’s most implacable state enemies in the Middle East have other problems to worry about, anti-Jewish sentiment among the proverbial Muslim Arabs on the street is more intense than ever. Also, chances are that Islamic State’s ghost-like ‘province’ on Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula will try to harass Israel before long. Should such a scenario materialise, Israel will demand Egypt’s permission to conduct its own anti-terrorist operations in Sinai. If Cairo objects, security relations are bound to suffer. Israel’s border with Jordan is quiet and likely to remain so as long as the Hashemite regime in Amman is stable. In the Golan Heights, on the other hand, Israel is facing a chaotic situation that involves no less than 26 different armed groups. The Israelis are highly averse to intervening in Syria, except for small-scale, local military operations such as preventing weapon shipments from Syria to Lebanon. At present, the greatest threat to Israel comes from Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Party of God is busy supporting the Iranian strategy in Syria with an estimated force of 5,000 to 10,000 fighters. All that Hezbollah needs to attack Israel is to start firing their modern rockets and missiles in significant numbers from Lebanon. Israel’s ‘Iron Dome’ missile defence system will not shield the country’s population centres from large-scale bombardment. Most Israelis are unaware of this, but their military knows. Israeli commanders also are aware that a ground offensive in Lebanon would be costly and slow, due to difficult terrain and Hezbollah forces being dug into their well hidden positions. If Israel took a simpler approach and tried to stop the rockets by bombing the 20 to 30 Shia villages that host the launching pads, the international outcry would be immense. Last but not least: the ‘intifada of the knives’ may gradually be turning into an intifada of cars and fire arms, and there is no end to it in sight. The Palestinian National Authority (PNA) has failed to take a stand. The leaders of Tanzim, which is the militia of the Palestinian ruling party Fatah, openly support the acts of violence; others are trying to reduce the flames. Meanwhile, the aged Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the State of Palestine and Palestine National Authority, who is 80), is sitting on his hands. On the US-Israeli front, the situation is, to put it gently, complex. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has just paid a visit to United States President Barack Obama in Washington. The trip was a success in the sense that Mr Netanyahu said nothing about Iran and praised the US president’s support for Israel’s security. In fact, the visit was frosty, aptly described by former US Ambassador to Israel Daniel Kurzer as ‘professional, polite and beneficial to both sides.’ For a more in-depth look at this subject with scenarios looking to future outcomes, go to our sister site: Geopolitical Information Service. Sign in for 3 Free Reports or Subscribe.

RB metadata

ID: 

1447843214281378500